The 30-year mortgage average moved lower Tuesday, erasing much of the previous two days’ gain and leaving the average four-tenths of a point below the 20-year peak notched on October 23.
Today’s National Mortgage Rate Averages
Rates on 30-year loans are wavering up and down, after coming down substantially from their highest level since 2002. The flagship 30-year average declined nine basis points Tuesday, landing at 7.18%. That’s notably below the 7.58% peak they hit just ten days ago.
The 15-year average was similarly down Tuesday, losing ten basis points to drop to 6.63%. Like 30-year rates, the 15-year average is roughly four-tenths of a point below its recent peak, which at 7.03% was its highest level since 2007.
The story was similar for Jumbo 30-year rates, which gave up 13 basis points Tuesday. Now at 6.02%, the Jumbo 30-year average is a quarter point under its 12-year peak of 6.27%.
Refinancing rates for 30-year and Jumbo 30-year loans moved similarly Tuesday compared to new purchase rates, with the 30-year refi average dropping eight basis points and the Jumbo 30-year refi average, 12 points. The 15-year refi average meanwhile declined a single basis point. The current cost to refinance with a fixed-rate loan is up to 39 basis points more expensive than new purchase rates.
After a historical rate plunge in August 2021, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of this year. Indeed, the 30-year average’s mid-June peak of 6.38% was almost 3.5 percentage points above its summer 2021 trough of 2.89%. But the surge this fall is dramatically outdoing the summer peak, with the 30-year average having reached 1.2 percentage points above June’s high.
The rates you see here generally won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online, since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive. They may involve paying points in advance, or they may be selected based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or taking a smaller-than-typical loan given the value of the home.
Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.
Lowest Mortgage Rates by State
The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan term, and size, in addition to individual lenders’ varying risk management strategies.
What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?
Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it’s generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.
Macroeconomic factors have kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of this year. In particular, the Federal Reserve has been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic’s economic pressures, and it continues to do so. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.
Since June, the Fed has been reducing its balance sheet. Identical sizable reductions occurred monthly through the summer and are being accelerated in September. This is on top of its plan to reduce new bond purchases by an increment every month, the so-called taper, which began in November.
The Fed’s rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. Their next scheduled meeting takes place November 1-2.
The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country’s top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.
For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.