Today’s Mortgage Rates & Trends – December 9, 2022: Rates yo-yo

The yo-yo pattern for 30-year rates continues, with the flagship average climbing a tenth of a point Thursday, after dropping three times in the past week to 6.50%.

Today’s National Mortgage Rate Averages

Rates on 30-year mortgages rose a tenth of a point Thursday to average 6.60%. For over a week, the 30-year average has been alternating daily up and down moves between 6.50% and 6.64%, after breaking above 7% for one day last week. The average is currently in its lowest range since mid-September, and also sits about a percentage point under last month’s 20-year high of 7.58%.

Thursday’s 15-year average climbed similarly, tacking on 11 basis points to reach 5.97%. Still, the current average is more than a percentage point cheaper than its October peak of 7.03%, which was its highest mark since 2007.

For their part, Jumbo 30-year rates added back an eighth of a point Thursday. Now at 5.77%, the Jumbo 30-year average is a half percentage point below the 12-year high of 6.27% it registered last month.

Refinancing rates for 30-year loans again moved more dramatically Thursday than for new purchase loans. The 30-year refi average added a significant 27 basis points for a second day in a row, while the 15-year refi average added 15 basis points and the Jumbo 30-year refi average, 12 points. The cost to refinance for 30 years is currently 49 basis points more expensive than a new purchase 30-year loan.

After a historical rate plunge in August 2021, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of this year. Indeed, the 30-year average’s mid-June peak of 6.38% was almost 3.5 percentage points above its summer 2021 trough of 2.89%. But the surge this fall dramatically outdid the summer high, with late October’s 30-year average reaching 1.2 percentage points higher than the June peak.

Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.

Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan term, and size, in addition to individual lenders’ varying risk management strategies.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it’s generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors had kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of 2021. In particular, the Federal Reserve had been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic’s economic pressures. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

But starting last November, the Fed began tapering its bond purchases downward, making sizable reductions each month until reaching net-zero in March 2022.

The Fed’s rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. Their next scheduled meeting takes place December 13-14.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country’s top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.